AAOI — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Sales engine and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Business quality.
Worth $4.8 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $48.1 B.
Sales +127% last quarter (year over year) and +83% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 29%, operating margin -7%, return on equity -2%.
Free cash flow −$1.3 B a year = -27.2% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 6.4× sales: 0.06 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 5% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 9.1%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 154 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AAOI is up 123.3%. Over about two years: +85.8%.
- Today it sits 76.2% below its 52-week high ($223.10) and +172.1% above the low ($19.49).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 79.0%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 51% of days. Best day: +56.9%. Worst day: -20.9%.
- Annual volatility around 127%: in a normal year a ±127% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $53.10 +0.1% | $49.02 – $57.50 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $53.23 +0.4% | $46.36 – $61.11 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 38% | $53.36 +0.6% | $44.64 – $63.78 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $53.69 +1.2% | $41.72 – $69.09 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 37% | $54.43 +2.6% | $37.76 – $78.44 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 37% | $57.33 +8.1% | $30.44 – $107.98 |
Recent momentum: -36.7% over 20 days · -56.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AAOI. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about AAOI
Could AAOI be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 68/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AAOI gone up in the last year?
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is up 123.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $53.03, 76.2% below its 52-week high ($223.10). 52-week range: $19.49 – $223.10.
How volatile is AAOI stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 127% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 79.0%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AAOI have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AAOI?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 40, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 37% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
🔦 Keep analyzing
Other stocks Faro watches