Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 55% | $186.47 +0.2% | $178.90 – $194.37 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 56% | $187.36 +0.7% | $174.38 – $201.32 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 57% | $188.26 +1.2% | $171.58 – $206.55 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 59% | $190.51 +2.4% | $167.10 – $217.21 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 62% | $195.57 +5.1% | $161.72 – $236.50 |
| 3 months | Strongly bullish | 68% | $216.14 +16.2% | $155.51 – $300.40 |
Recent momentum: +4.7% over 20 days · +50.8% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
National center for veterans analysis and statistics platform
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $33 M. Stock since the announcement: -0.5%.
Procure palantir license for software as a service
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $32 M. Stock since the announcement: -0.5%.
TITAN moves from prototype to production: a $192M delivery order for 8 TITAN intelligence platforms over 18 months, split $127M to Palantir and $65M to Anduril.
💡 The prototype stage is over. A production delivery order with a unit count and a delivery window is recurring, dated revenue — and it makes Palantir the manufacturer of the Army deep-sensing node, not just its software vendor.
Ten-year Enterprise Agreement consolidating 75 separate contracts into one.
💡 Makes PLTR the Army's data backbone: long-horizon recurring revenue.
Expansion of the Maven Smart System (AI for combat targeting).
💡 Confirms Maven as the flagship military AI program; expands defense software spending.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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