Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 40% | $40.23 +0.2% | $38.73 – $41.80 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 40% | $40.36 +0.5% | $37.78 – $43.12 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 40% | $40.49 +0.8% | $37.18 – $44.09 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 40% | $40.81 +1.6% | $36.17 – $46.04 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 41% | $41.52 +3.4% | $34.86 – $49.45 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 45% | $44.36 +10.4% | $32.76 – $60.05 |
Recent momentum: -15.0% over 20 days · -10.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Rare-earth magnet public-private partnership; the DoD becomes its largest shareholder and buys 100% of output for ten years.
💡 Independence from China in critical magnets. The purest 'Follow the Contract' pattern there is.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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