Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 52% | $546.94 -0.0% | $535.98 – $558.12 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 52% | $546.69 -0.1% | $527.86 – $566.19 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 52% | $546.43 -0.1% | $522.26 – $571.73 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 51% | $545.80 -0.2% | $511.96 – $581.87 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 49% | $544.40 -0.5% | $496.18 – $597.30 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 46% | $539.09 -1.5% | $459.09 – $633.03 |
Recent momentum: +2.2% over 20 days · -6.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Lockheed Martin, Rotary and Missions Systems, Liverpool, New York, was awarded a $74,294,440 firm-fixed-price modification to previously-awarded contract N00024-20-C-5503 for production of Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program AN/SLQ-32(V)6 systems.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $0 M. Stock since the announcement: +5.7%.
Lockheed Martin Corp., Owego, New York, was awarded a $117,118,040 cost-no-fee, cost-plus-fixed-fee, firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for Generation II radar frequency interferometer post-production support services for Apache attack helicopters.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: +9.5%.
Lockheed Martin Corp., Rotary and Missions Systems, Liverpool, New York , was awarded a $208,962,712 firm-fixed-price modification to a previously-awarded contract for production of Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program AN/SLQ-32(V)6 systems.
💡 Worth 0.16% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $1 M. Stock since the announcement: +9%.
Seven-year contract to quadruple production of THAAD anti-missile interceptors.
💡 Multi-year anchor contract: missile-defense revenue visibility out to roughly 2033.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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