Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $532.87 -0.0% | $522.52 – $543.41 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $532.70 -0.0% | $514.92 – $551.10 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 38% | $532.53 -0.1% | $509.70 – $556.39 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $532.12 -0.2% | $500.13 – $566.15 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 37% | $531.20 -0.3% | $485.57 – $581.13 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 36% | $527.73 -1.0% | $451.69 – $616.56 |
Recent momentum: -8.0% over 20 days · +2.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Seven-year contract to quadruple production of THAAD anti-missile interceptors.
💡 Multi-year anchor contract: missile-defense revenue visibility out to roughly 2033.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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