Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 54% | $250.14 +0.1% | $244.28 – $256.15 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 54% | $250.43 +0.2% | $240.34 – $260.94 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 55% | $250.72 +0.3% | $237.76 – $264.39 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 55% | $251.44 +0.6% | $233.26 – $271.05 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 56% | $253.04 +1.2% | $226.95 – $282.12 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 58% | $259.22 +3.7% | $214.70 – $312.98 |
Recent momentum: -1.5% over 20 days · +7.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Amazon web services (aws) cloud hosting services
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $60 M. Stock since the announcement: -1.9%.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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