Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 50% | $519.84 -0.0% | $510.82 – $529.03 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 50% | $519.81 -0.0% | $504.28 – $535.82 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 49% | $519.78 -0.0% | $499.81 – $540.54 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 48% | $519.70 -0.0% | $491.69 – $549.30 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 46% | $519.52 -0.1% | $479.45 – $562.95 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 44% | $518.85 -0.2% | $451.50 – $596.24 |
Recent momentum: -1.4% over 20 days · -2.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Northrop Grumman Corp., Charlottesville, Virginia, was awarded a $29,219,125 cost-plus-incentive-fee, cost-plus-fixed-fee, firm-fixed-price, and cost only contract for low-rate initial production units and maintenance assistance modules, engineering support, integration, and test of the AN/WSN-12 Inertial…
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $3 M. Stock since the announcement: +8.8%.
Northrop Grumman Systems Corp., Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, has been awarded an estimated $49,528,809 cost-plus-fixed-fee modification (P00010) to a six-year firm-fixed-price contract to extend the period of performance for the manufacture and repair of required tooling and production of B-2 rudder and elevon.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: +7.5%.
Northrop Grumman Systems Corp., Meadows, Illinois, has been awarded a $36,987,335 modification (P00187) to previously awarded for F-16 Integrated Viper Electronic Warfare Suite – Electronic Warfare Radio Frequency Compatibility, Big Iron effort.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $16 M. Stock since the announcement: +2.8%.
F-35 sustainment in South Korea, Japan and Italy.
💡 NOC gets paid for globally maintaining the largest fighter program in the world.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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