Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $528.24 +0.0% | $519.39 – $537.24 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $528.24 +0.0% | $513.01 – $543.93 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 38% | $528.24 +0.0% | $508.66 – $548.58 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 37% | $528.24 +0.0% | $500.76 – $557.23 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 37% | $528.25 +0.0% | $488.89 – $570.77 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 36% | $528.26 +0.0% | $461.96 – $604.07 |
Recent momentum: -6.0% over 20 days · -3.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
F-35 sustainment in South Korea, Japan and Italy.
💡 NOC gets paid for globally maintaining the largest fighter program in the world.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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