Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 44% | $202.33 +0.1% | $198.90 – $205.83 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 45% | $202.74 +0.3% | $196.82 – $208.85 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 45% | $203.15 +0.5% | $195.52 – $211.08 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 48% | $204.18 +1.0% | $193.42 – $215.54 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 51% | $206.47 +2.1% | $190.89 – $223.32 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 59% | $215.42 +6.6% | $188.05 – $246.78 |
Recent momentum: -9.7% over 20 days · +12.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Work on the F135 propulsion system for the F-35 fighter.
💡 Steady F-35 sustainment flow: recurring aftermarket revenue.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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