Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 50% | $191.33 +0.1% | $188.24 – $194.47 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 50% | $191.65 +0.3% | $186.33 – $197.12 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 52% | $191.97 +0.4% | $185.12 – $199.08 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 53% | $192.78 +0.8% | $183.12 – $202.95 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 56% | $194.56 +1.8% | $180.59 – $209.61 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 61% | $201.52 +5.4% | $177.12 – $229.28 |
Recent momentum: -1.6% over 20 days · -10.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Raytheon Co., Marlborough, Massachusetts, has been awarded an $8,000,000,000 maximum ceiling, cost-plus-fixed-fee, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for the procurement of terminal developmental modernization, production restart services, and technical studies associated with Air Force Nuclear…
💡 Worth 3.06% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $24 M. Stock since the announcement: +6%.
Under this contract, the contractor will manufacture and assemble Standard Missile-3 Block IB All-Up-Rounds for the government.
💡 Worth 2.43% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $454 M. Stock since the announcement: +5.2%.
Collins Aerospace, Marlborough, Massachusetts, has been awarded a ceiling $95,000,000 indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for the Air Traffic Navigation, Integration, and Coordination System program.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $2 M. Stock since the announcement: +5.2%.
Work on the F135 propulsion system for the F-35 fighter.
💡 Steady F-35 sustainment flow: recurring aftermarket revenue.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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