Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $50.96 +0.2% | $48.48 – $53.57 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 40% | $51.20 +0.7% | $46.97 – $55.82 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 39% | $51.45 +1.2% | $46.02 – $57.52 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $52.07 +2.4% | $44.47 – $60.95 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 40% | $53.45 +5.1% | $42.53 – $67.16 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 44% | $59.07 +16.2% | $39.77 – $87.74 |
Recent momentum: -21.3% over 20 days · -27.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Largest launch contract in company history: 12 suborbital launches with up to 6 more, supporting hypersonic and missile-defence testing, flying mainly from a new Rocket Lab pad at Kodiak, Alaska.
💡 Rocket Lab stops being priced as a small-satellite launcher and starts being priced as a missile-defence test provider — a customer that pays on schedule and does not churn.
Prime contract to design and build 18 missile-tracking satellites (Tranche 3 / PWSA).
💡 RKLB's largest contract: it establishes the company as a national-security space prime.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
Other stocks Faro watches