Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 41% | $58.94 -0.1% | $57.52 – $60.40 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 39% | $58.80 -0.4% | $56.36 – $61.35 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 38% | $58.66 -0.6% | $55.54 – $61.96 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 36% | $58.32 -1.2% | $53.98 – $63.01 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 34% | $57.56 -2.4% | $51.46 – $64.39 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 27% | $54.78 -7.2% | $45.12 – $66.51 |
Recent momentum: -8.7% over 20 days · -13.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
AECOM Technical Services Inc., Los Angeles, California, was awarded a $30,674,435 firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for maintenance and support of the Remedial Action Cost Engineering and Requirements, and Parametric Automated Cost Engineering System software systems used for…
💡 Worth 0.40% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: -8.7%.
Construction management as advisor (cma)services for 15 design-build construction projects impacting border patrol checkpoints in arizona, california, new mexico, and texas.
💡 Worth 0.46% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $35 M. Stock since the announcement: -21.6%.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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