AEVA — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Sales engine. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Business quality.
Worth $826 M. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $8.3 B.
Sales +86% last quarter (year over year) and +99% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 31%, operating margin -559%, return on equity -354%.
Free cash flow −$57 M a year = -7.0% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 33.5× sales: 0.36 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 6% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 17.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 7 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AEVA is up 4.5%. Over about two years: +190.3%.
- Today it sits 59.7% below its 52-week high ($29.29) and +37.4% above the low ($8.60).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 70.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +34.4%. Worst day: -17.6%.
- Annual volatility around 105%: in a normal year a ±105% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 54% | $11.84 +0.2% | $11.08 – $12.65 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 54% | $11.89 +0.6% | $10.60 – $13.34 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 53% | $11.94 +1.1% | $10.30 – $13.85 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 51% | $12.07 +2.1% | $9.79 – $14.88 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 50% | $12.35 +4.6% | $9.12 – $16.74 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 50% | $13.51 +14.3% | $7.98 – $22.86 |
Recent momentum: +7.5% over 20 days · -40.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AEVA. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about AEVA
Could AEVA be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 66/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AEVA gone up in the last year?
Aeva Technologies (AEVA) is up 4.5% over the last 12 months and trades at $11.82, 59.7% below its 52-week high ($29.29). 52-week range: $8.60 – $29.29.
How volatile is AEVA stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 105% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 70.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AEVA have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AEVA?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: neutral technical bias, RSI 59, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 50% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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