AI — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Sales engine and Price vs. growth.
Worth $1.9 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $19.5 B.
Sales -26% last quarter (year over year) and -36% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 29%, operating margin -198%, return on equity -60%.
Free cash flow $16 M a year = 0.8% of its value.
Trades at 8.4× sales with no growth to back it.
Net cash equal to 30% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 8.2%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (51%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 27 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AI is down 20.9%. Over about two years: -56.4%.
- Today it sits 24.5% below its 52-week high ($16.03) and +56.0% above the low ($7.76).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 51.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +14.8%. Worst day: -18.5%.
- Annual volatility around 45%: in a normal year a ±45% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 54% | $12.08 -0.2% | $11.75 – $12.43 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 52% | $12.04 -0.5% | $11.47 – $12.65 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 52% | $12.01 -0.8% | $11.27 – $12.78 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 50% | $11.91 -1.6% | $10.89 – $13.01 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 48% | $11.69 -3.4% | $10.28 – $13.30 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 42% | $10.90 -9.9% | $8.73 – $13.63 |
Recent momentum: -0.5% over 20 days · +16.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AI. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about AI
Could AI be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 46/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AI fallen in the last year?
C3.ai (AI) is down 20.9% over the last 12 months and trades at $12.11, 24.5% below its 52-week high ($16.03). 52-week range: $7.76 – $16.03.
How volatile is AI stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 45% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 51.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AI have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AI?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 45, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 48% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
🔦 Keep analyzing
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