ALGM — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $5.9 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $59.1 B.
Sales +29% last quarter (year over year) and +23% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 48%, operating margin 10%, return on equity 3%.
Free cash flow $134 M a year = 2.3% of its value.
Trades at 5.9× sales: 0.23 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 2% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 32.5%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 14 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year ALGM is up 19.0%. Over about two years: +54.4%.
- Today it sits 54.5% below its 52-week high ($69.62) and +38.9% above the low ($22.80).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 61.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 52% of days. Best day: +14.6%. Worst day: -14.2%.
- Annual volatility around 69%: in a normal year a ±69% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 45% | $31.70 +0.1% | $30.35 – $33.11 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 45% | $31.76 +0.3% | $29.45 – $34.24 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 44% | $31.81 +0.4% | $28.86 – $35.06 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 44% | $31.95 +0.9% | $27.84 – $36.66 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 43% | $32.26 +1.8% | $26.42 – $39.38 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 44% | $33.45 +5.6% | $23.68 – $47.25 |
Recent momentum: -2.1% over 20 days · -17.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for ALGM. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about ALGM
Could ALGM be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 73/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has ALGM gone up in the last year?
Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) is up 19.0% over the last 12 months and trades at $31.68, 54.5% below its 52-week high ($69.62). 52-week range: $22.80 – $69.62.
How volatile is ALGM stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 69% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 61.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does ALGM have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy ALGM?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 50, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 43% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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