AMBA — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Balance sheet and Room to grow. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $2.7 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $26.9 B.
Sales +13% last quarter (year over year) and +37% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 59%, operating margin -15%, return on equity -9%.
Free cash flow $33 M a year = 1.2% of its value.
Trades at 6.4× sales: 0.26 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 10% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 4.3%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (26%) · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 43 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AMBA is down 34.8%. Over about two years: +2.2%.
- Today it sits 36.1% below its 52-week high ($95.51) and +25.4% above the low ($48.65).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 49.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +28.0%. Worst day: -21.4%.
- Annual volatility around 63%: in a normal year a ±63% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 42% | $61.02 +0.0% | $58.63 – $63.50 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 42% | $61.02 +0.0% | $56.95 – $65.39 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 41% | $61.03 +0.0% | $55.82 – $66.72 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 41% | $61.04 +0.0% | $53.80 – $69.25 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 40% | $61.07 +0.1% | $50.86 – $73.33 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 39% | $61.18 +0.3% | $44.57 – $83.98 |
Recent momentum: -3.7% over 20 days · -18.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AMBA. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about AMBA
Could AMBA be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 70/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AMBA fallen in the last year?
Ambarella (AMBA) is down 34.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $61.02, 36.1% below its 52-week high ($95.51). 52-week range: $48.65 – $95.51.
How volatile is AMBA stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 63% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 49.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AMBA have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AMBA?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 39, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 40% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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