AMSC — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Business quality and Faro seal.
Worth $1.2 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $12.2 B.
Sales +43% last quarter (year over year) and +34% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 28%, operating margin 4%, return on equity 29%.
Free cash flow $31 M a year = 2.6% of its value.
Trades at 3.5× sales: 0.09 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 13% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 3.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 36 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AMSC is down 28.8%. Over about two years: -30.3%.
- Today it sits 57.2% below its 52-week high ($58.72) and +7.5% above the low ($23.39).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 60.2%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +14.8%. Worst day: -10.7%.
- Annual volatility around 62%: in a normal year a ±62% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 42% | $25.13 -0.1% | $24.17 – $26.13 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 41% | $25.10 -0.2% | $23.45 – $26.85 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 40% | $25.06 -0.4% | $22.96 – $27.35 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 39% | $24.97 -0.7% | $22.07 – $28.26 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 37% | $24.77 -1.5% | $20.71 – $29.63 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 33% | $24.04 -4.4% | $17.62 – $32.78 |
Recent momentum: -6.5% over 20 days · -19.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AMSC. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about AMSC
Could AMSC be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 80/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AMSC fallen in the last year?
American Superconductor (AMSC) is down 28.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $25.15, 57.2% below its 52-week high ($58.72). 52-week range: $23.39 – $58.72.
How volatile is AMSC stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 62% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 60.2%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AMSC have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AMSC?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 50, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 37% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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