APLD — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Sales engine and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Balance sheet.
Worth $5.1 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $50.9 B.
Sales +322% last quarter (year over year) and +184% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 22%, operating margin -26%, return on equity -14%.
Free cash flow −$4.3 B a year = -84.1% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 5.8× sales: 0.04 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 69% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 7.7%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 35 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year APLD is down 41.1%. Over about two years: +121.8%.
- Today it sits 66.1% below its 52-week high ($49.65) and +18.8% above the low ($14.17).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 71.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 46% of days. Best day: +25.5%. Worst day: -17.5%.
- Annual volatility around 95%: in a normal year a ±95% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 41% | $16.86 +0.2% | $15.88 – $17.90 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $16.92 +0.5% | $15.25 – $18.77 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 41% | $16.97 +0.8% | $14.84 – $19.41 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $17.10 +1.6% | $14.15 – $20.68 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 41% | $17.41 +3.4% | $13.22 – $22.92 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 42% | $18.61 +10.5% | $11.56 – $29.97 |
Recent momentum: -17.4% over 20 days · -40.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for APLD. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about APLD
Could APLD be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 58/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has APLD fallen in the last year?
Applied Digital (APLD) is down 41.1% over the last 12 months and trades at $16.84, 66.1% below its 52-week high ($49.65). 52-week range: $14.17 – $49.65.
How volatile is APLD stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 95% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 71.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does APLD have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy APLD?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 46, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 41% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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