APP — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Sales engine. Most lacking: Room to grow and Faro seal.
Capped at 60 for size: it is so big that ×10 would require an off-the-charts valuation.
Worth $131 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $1.31 T.
Sales +56% last quarter (year over year) and +16% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 89%, operating margin 78%, return on equity 210%.
Free cash flow $3.7 B a year = 2.8% of its value.
Trades at 17.2× sales: 0.48 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 0% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 4.9%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (33%) · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 40 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year APP is down 33.7%. Over about two years: +36.5%.
- Today it sits 46.2% below its 52-week high ($733.60) and +72.7% above the low ($228.50).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 68.9%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 47% of days. Best day: +31.0%. Worst day: -19.7%.
- Annual volatility around 82%: in a normal year a ±82% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 61% | $394.90 +0.1% | $375.11 – $415.73 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 61% | $395.39 +0.2% | $361.70 – $432.21 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 61% | $395.88 +0.3% | $352.89 – $444.11 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 59% | $397.11 +0.6% | $337.53 – $467.22 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 57% | $399.84 +1.3% | $315.91 – $506.06 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 54% | $410.41 +4.0% | $272.90 – $617.22 |
Recent momentum: +41.3% over 20 days · +27.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for APP. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about APP
Could APP be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 60/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has APP fallen in the last year?
AppLovin (APP) is down 33.7% over the last 12 months and trades at $394.65, 46.2% below its 52-week high ($733.60). 52-week range: $228.50 – $733.60.
How volatile is APP stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 82% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 68.9%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does APP have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy APP?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 77 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 57% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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