Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 49% | $92.61 +0.2% | $89.59 – $95.74 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 50% | $93.02 +0.7% | $87.83 – $98.52 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 51% | $93.44 +1.1% | $86.76 – $100.63 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 53% | $94.48 +2.2% | $85.07 – $104.92 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 56% | $96.80 +4.8% | $83.16 – $112.68 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 63% | $106.22 +14.9% | $81.64 – $138.19 |
Recent momentum: -9.3% over 20 days · +16.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
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The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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