Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 38% | $147.13 -0.1% | $139.82 – $154.81 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 37% | $146.96 -0.2% | $134.55 – $160.50 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 36% | $146.79 -0.3% | $131.00 – $164.48 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 35% | $146.36 -0.6% | $124.60 – $171.92 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 33% | $145.44 -1.2% | $115.18 – $183.64 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 30% | $141.95 -3.6% | $94.77 – $212.62 |
Recent momentum: -13.5% over 20 days · -21.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
We have no notable federal contract on file for AVAV. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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