AVEX — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Sales engine. Most lacking: Business quality and Cash it generates.
Worth $749 M. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $7.5 B.
Sales +100% last quarter (year over year) and — last fiscal year.
Gross margin 25%, operating margin 10%, return on equity —.
No free cash flow data.
Trades at 1.1× sales: 0.01 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 14% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 20.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 71 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the 131 sessions we have for AVEX it moved -59.8%.
- Today it sits 73.2% below its 52-week high ($40.48) and +11.9% above the low ($9.68).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 76.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 47% of days. Best day: +31.1%. Worst day: -32.5%.
- Annual volatility around 108%: in a normal year a ±108% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 37% | $10.80 -0.2% | $10.09 – $11.57 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 36% | $10.75 -0.7% | $9.55 – $12.10 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 34% | $10.70 -1.2% | $9.19 – $12.47 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 32% | $10.58 -2.4% | $8.52 – $13.12 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 29% | $10.30 -4.9% | $7.54 – $14.08 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 21% | $9.32 -13.9% | $5.42 – $16.02 |
Recent momentum: -32.6% over 20 days · -31.9% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AVEX. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 30 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about AVEX
Could AVEX be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 78/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AVEX fallen in the last year?
AEVEX (AVEX) is down 59.8% over the period with data and trades at $10.83, 73.2% below its 52-week high ($40.48). 52-week range: $9.68 – $40.48.
How volatile is AVEX stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 108% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 76.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AVEX have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AVEX?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 30, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 29% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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