AVLN — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Business quality and Sales engine.
Worth $1.2 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $11.5 B.
Not enough sales data.
Gross margin 0%, operating margin 0%, return on equity —.
No free cash flow data.
Trades at —× sales with no growth to back it.
Net cash equal to 29% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.0%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 23 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the 122 sessions we have for AVLN it moved -11.7%.
- Today it sits 33.7% below its 52-week high ($39.25) and +11.6% above the low ($23.33).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 40.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 53% of days. Best day: +10.2%. Worst day: -10.8%.
- Annual volatility around 63%: in a normal year a ±63% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 46% | $26.01 -0.1% | $24.99 – $27.07 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 45% | $25.96 -0.3% | $24.22 – $27.82 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 45% | $25.91 -0.5% | $23.69 – $28.33 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 44% | $25.78 -1.0% | $22.71 – $29.25 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 42% | $25.49 -2.1% | $21.22 – $30.61 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 38% | $24.42 -6.2% | $17.78 – $33.54 |
Recent momentum: -7.3% over 20 days · -11.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AVLN. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 30 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about AVLN
Could AVLN be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 52/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AVLN fallen in the last year?
Avalyn Pharma (AVLN) is down 11.7% over the period with data and trades at $26.04, 33.7% below its 52-week high ($39.25). 52-week range: $23.33 – $39.25.
How volatile is AVLN stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 63% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 40.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AVLN have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AVLN?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 46, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 42% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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