AXON — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Business quality. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $24.9 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $249 B.
Sales +28% last quarter (year over year) and +33% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 57%, operating margin 2%, return on equity 8%.
Free cash flow $66 M a year = 0.3% of its value.
Trades at 7.3× sales: 0.24 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 5% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 4.5%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 56 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AXON is down 46.6%. Over about two years: -48.6%.
- Today it sits 52.7% below its 52-week high ($645.72) and +1.0% above the low ($302.54).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 53.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 47% of days. Best day: +17.6%. Worst day: -18.2%.
- Annual volatility around 70%: in a normal year a ±70% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 36% | $305.30 -0.1% | $292.06 – $319.15 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 35% | $304.49 -0.4% | $281.98 – $328.81 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 34% | $303.68 -0.7% | $275.01 – $335.35 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 32% | $301.67 -1.3% | $262.19 – $347.09 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 29% | $297.29 -2.8% | $242.61 – $364.29 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 24% | $281.14 -8.0% | $197.71 – $399.77 |
Recent momentum: -26.7% over 20 days · -52.7% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AXON. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Could AXON be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 65/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AXON fallen in the last year?
Axon Enterprise (AXON) is down 46.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $305.71, 52.7% below its 52-week high ($645.72). 52-week range: $302.54 – $645.72.
How volatile is AXON stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 70% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 53.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AXON have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AXON?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 21 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 29% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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