AXSM — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Sales engine. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $7.7 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $76.7 B.
Sales +52% last quarter (year over year) and +66% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 93%, operating margin -19%, return on equity -176%.
Free cash flow −$24 M a year = -0.3% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 8.9× sales: 0.15 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 1% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 15.0%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 4 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AXSM is up 4.4%. Over about two years: +46.5%.
- Today it sits 42.9% below its 52-week high ($255.17) and +12.3% above the low ($129.80).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 49.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 46% of days. Best day: +22.8%. Worst day: -7.1%.
- Annual volatility around 44%: in a normal year a ±44% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 46% | $145.91 +0.1% | $141.94 – $149.98 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 46% | $146.13 +0.2% | $139.32 – $153.27 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 46% | $146.35 +0.4% | $137.61 – $155.65 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 46% | $146.91 +0.8% | $134.65 – $160.29 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 45% | $148.15 +1.6% | $130.57 – $168.09 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 47% | $152.97 +4.9% | $122.92 – $190.38 |
Recent momentum: -9.9% over 20 days · -33.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AXSM. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about AXSM
Could AXSM be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 76/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AXSM gone up in the last year?
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) is up 4.4% over the last 12 months and trades at $145.80, 42.9% below its 52-week high ($255.17). 52-week range: $129.80 – $255.17.
How volatile is AXSM stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 44% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 49.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AXSM have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AXSM?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 51, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 45% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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