Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 45% | $189.40 +0.0% | $185.40 – $193.49 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 45% | $189.53 +0.1% | $182.65 – $196.67 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 45% | $189.66 +0.2% | $180.81 – $198.93 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 45% | $189.98 +0.3% | $177.57 – $203.25 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 44% | $190.69 +0.7% | $172.91 – $210.29 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 44% | $193.43 +2.2% | $163.27 – $229.16 |
Recent momentum: -5.9% over 20 days · -9.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
This order provides for the continued redesign and development of the V-22 Osprey Flight Control System, including replacement flight control computers, cockpit interface units, and associated test equipment for the Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy and Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $1 M.
The Boeing Co., Ridley Park, Pennsylvania, was awarded a $33,881,195 modification (P00005) to contract W58RGZ-23-F-0395 to add country-specific requirements (Korea) to the CH-47F Block I Chinook helicopter production line.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: +2.2%.
This contract provides for all Windows-based subsystem computers in the F-15E MTC program to be in compliance with DoD cybersecurity requirements.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $26 M. Stock since the announcement: +1.3%.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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