BBAI — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Business quality.
Worth $1.0 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $10.1 B.
Sales +32% last quarter (year over year) and -19% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 30%, operating margin -63%, return on equity -28%.
Free cash flow −$189 M a year = -18.6% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 7.1× sales: 1.17 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 26% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.7%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 77 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year BBAI is down 65.3%. Over about two years: +15.7%.
- Today it sits 70.6% below its 52-week high ($7.17) and +0.0% above the low ($2.11).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 70.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 41% of days. Best day: +18.3%. Worst day: -13.3%.
- Annual volatility around 67%: in a normal year a ±67% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 41% | $2.11 +0.0% | $2.02 – $2.20 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 40% | $2.11 +0.1% | $1.96 – $2.27 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 40% | $2.11 +0.1% | $1.92 – $2.32 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 40% | $2.11 +0.3% | $1.85 – $2.41 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 39% | $2.12 +0.6% | $1.75 – $2.57 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 38% | $2.14 +1.8% | $1.53 – $3.00 |
Recent momentum: -9.7% over 20 days · -33.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for BBAI. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Could BBAI be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 48/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has BBAI fallen in the last year?
BigBear.ai (BBAI) is down 65.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $2.11, 70.6% below its 52-week high ($7.17). 52-week range: $2.11 – $7.17.
How volatile is BBAI stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 67% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 70.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does BBAI have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy BBAI?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 49, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 39% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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