Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 43% | $135.71 +0.0% | $132.31 – $139.20 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 43% | $135.75 +0.0% | $129.91 – $141.85 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 42% | $135.79 +0.1% | $128.30 – $143.72 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 42% | $135.88 +0.1% | $125.40 – $147.24 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 41% | $136.08 +0.3% | $121.14 – $152.87 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 40% | $136.87 +0.9% | $111.89 – $167.42 |
Recent momentum: -8.0% over 20 days · -22.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Domestic uranium enrichment pilot plant task order 1
💡 Worth 0.29% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $36 M. Stock since the announcement: -8.7%.
Project Pele: transportable nuclear microreactor; BWXT delivered the TRISO (HALEU) fuel.
💡 Key builder of military reactors and fuel: a bet on the Pentagon's nuclear revival.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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