DBC — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Multibagger DNA is computed for companies, not ETFs or funds.
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year DBC is up 51.8%. Over about two years: +50.6%.
- It is practically at its 52-week high ($34.10).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 16.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 57% of days. Best day: +3.7%. Worst day: -4.1%.
- Annual volatility around 20%: in a normal year a ±20% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 59% | $34.13 +0.1% | $33.70 – $34.56 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 60% | $34.18 +0.2% | $33.45 – $34.94 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 62% | $34.24 +0.4% | $33.29 – $35.22 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 64% | $34.38 +0.8% | $33.04 – $35.77 |
| 1 month | Strongly bullish | 67% | $34.69 +1.7% | $32.75 – $36.75 |
| 3 months | Strongly bullish | 73% | $35.90 +5.3% | $32.49 – $39.67 |
Recent momentum: +4.5% over 20 days · +16.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for DBC. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 30 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has DBC gone up in the last year?
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) is up 51.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $34.10, practically at its 52-week high. 52-week range: $22.36 – $34.10.
How volatile is DBC stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 20% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 16.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does DBC have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy DBC?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 79 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 67% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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