Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 43% | $35.64 +0.0% | $34.90 – $36.39 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 43% | $35.67 +0.1% | $34.39 – $36.99 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 42% | $35.70 +0.2% | $34.06 – $37.41 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 42% | $35.78 +0.4% | $33.48 – $38.23 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 42% | $35.95 +0.9% | $32.66 – $39.58 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 43% | $36.63 +2.8% | $31.01 – $43.27 |
Recent momentum: -0.8% over 20 days · -19.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Leonardo DRS Airborne and Intelligence Systems, Beavercreek, Ohio, is awarded a $39,608,346 firm-fixed-price, cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for the production and delivery of up to 55 Joint Tactical Terminal Transceiver units.
💡 Worth 0.41% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $40 M. Stock since the announcement: -20.6%.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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