DUOL — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Balance sheet and Business quality. Most lacking: Faro seal and Sales engine.
Worth $7.5 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $75.2 B.
Sales +14% last quarter (year over year) and +39% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 73%, operating margin 13%, return on equity 10%.
Free cash flow $313 M a year = 4.2% of its value.
Trades at 6.4× sales: 0.24 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 17% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 1.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (57%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 25 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year DUOL is down 18.2%. Over about two years: -49.3%.
- Today it sits 23.7% below its 52-week high ($209.08) and +77.1% above the low ($90.03).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 56.9%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +26.0%. Worst day: -14.0%.
- Annual volatility around 70%: in a normal year a ±70% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 58% | $159.22 -0.1% | $152.31 – $166.45 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 57% | $158.79 -0.4% | $147.04 – $171.49 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 57% | $158.36 -0.7% | $143.40 – $174.89 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 56% | $157.29 -1.3% | $136.69 – $181.01 |
| 1 month | Strongly bullish | 54% | $154.97 -2.8% | $126.44 – $189.94 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 48% | $146.40 -8.2% | $102.91 – $208.25 |
Recent momentum: +7.1% over 20 days · +9.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for DUOL. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about DUOL
Could DUOL be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 74/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has DUOL fallen in the last year?
Duolingo (DUOL) is down 18.2% over the last 12 months and trades at $159.44, 23.7% below its 52-week high ($209.08). 52-week range: $90.03 – $209.08.
How volatile is DUOL stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 70% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 56.9%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does DUOL have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy DUOL?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 59, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 54% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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