Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 41% | $2.38 -0.1% | $2.27 – $2.49 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 40% | $2.37 -0.3% | $2.19 – $2.57 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 40% | $2.37 -0.5% | $2.13 – $2.63 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 40% | $2.36 -0.9% | $2.04 – $2.73 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 39% | $2.33 -1.9% | $1.89 – $2.89 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 36% | $2.25 -5.6% | $1.55 – $3.25 |
Recent momentum: -15.9% over 20 days · -8.5% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
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The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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