ENPH — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Balance sheet and Room to grow. Most lacking: Sales engine and Faro seal.
Worth $3.6 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $35.8 B.
Sales -28% last quarter (year over year) and +11% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 24%, operating margin 1%, return on equity 8%.
Free cash flow $103 M a year = 2.9% of its value.
Trades at 3.0× sales with no growth to back it.
Net cash equal to 9% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 3.1%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 15 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year ENPH is down 12.2%. Over about two years: -55.0%.
- Today it sits 62.6% below its 52-week high ($72.33) and +8.3% above the low ($24.99).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 65.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +38.6%. Worst day: -18.0%.
- Annual volatility around 65%: in a normal year a ±65% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $27.03 -0.2% | $25.95 – $28.15 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $26.94 -0.5% | $25.11 – $28.91 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 37% | $26.86 -0.8% | $24.52 – $29.41 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 35% | $26.64 -1.6% | $23.42 – $30.30 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 33% | $26.18 -3.3% | $21.72 – $31.55 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 27% | $24.49 -9.5% | $17.73 – $33.83 |
Recent momentum: -12.2% over 20 days · -31.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for ENPH. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Could ENPH be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 50/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has ENPH fallen in the last year?
Enphase Energy (ENPH) is down 12.2% over the last 12 months and trades at $27.07, 62.6% below its 52-week high ($72.33). 52-week range: $24.99 – $72.33.
How volatile is ENPH stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 65% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 65.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does ENPH have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy ENPH?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 39, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 33% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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