EVGO — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Balance sheet.
Worth $555 M. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $5.6 B.
Sales -1% last quarter (year over year) and +50% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 42%, operating margin -28%, return on equity -44%.
Free cash flow −$174 M a year = -31.4% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 1.4× sales: 0.06 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 61% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 5.6%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (31%) · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 52 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year EVGO is down 47.2%. Over about two years: -63.9%.
- Today it sits 49.1% below its 52-week high ($3.47) and +73.0% above the low ($1.02).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 70.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 40% of days. Best day: +46.8%. Worst day: -14.7%.
- Annual volatility around 95%: in a normal year a ±95% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 58% | $1.76 -0.2% | $1.66 – $1.87 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 57% | $1.75 -0.6% | $1.58 – $1.95 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 56% | $1.75 -1.0% | $1.53 – $2.00 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 53% | $1.73 -2.0% | $1.43 – $2.09 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 48% | $1.69 -4.2% | $1.28 – $2.23 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 39% | $1.55 -12.0% | $0.96 – $2.50 |
Recent momentum: +59.0% over 20 days · +15.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for EVGO. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about EVGO
Could EVGO be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 53/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has EVGO fallen in the last year?
EVgo (EVGO) is down 47.2% over the last 12 months and trades at $1.77, 49.1% below its 52-week high ($3.47). 52-week range: $1.02 – $3.47.
How volatile is EVGO stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 95% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 70.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does EVGO have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy EVGO?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 82 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 48% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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