FLY — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Sales engine and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Business quality.
Worth $4.3 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $43.0 B.
Sales +260% last quarter (year over year) and — last fiscal year.
Gross margin 23%, operating margin -95%, return on equity -31%.
Free cash flow −$193 M a year = -4.5% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 11.7× sales: 0.08 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 11% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 13.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 11 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year FLY is up 30.8%.
- Today it sits 57.4% below its 52-week high ($58.81) and +64.9% above the low ($15.18).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 74.2%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 47% of days. Best day: +36.8%. Worst day: -19.1%.
- Annual volatility around 99%: in a normal year a ±99% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 59% | $24.97 -0.2% | $23.46 – $26.58 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 58% | $24.85 -0.7% | $22.31 – $27.68 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 56% | $24.73 -1.2% | $21.52 – $28.43 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 53% | $24.44 -2.4% | $20.07 – $29.77 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 48% | $23.81 -4.9% | $17.89 – $31.68 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 37% | $21.54 -13.9% | $13.14 – $35.33 |
Recent momentum: +40.4% over 20 days · -1.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for FLY. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The space economy the government pays forThe Space Force, SDA and NASA are the anchor customer of the new space race. SpaceX is now public. Who launches, who bui…6 pp. · Free preview →
Golden Dome: The shield and who builds it$185 billion per the Pentagon, $1.2 trillion per Congress's budget office. The most ambitious missile-defense program si…6 pp. · Free preview →
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about FLY
Could FLY be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 68/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has FLY gone up in the last year?
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) is up 30.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $25.03, 57.4% below its 52-week high ($58.81). 52-week range: $15.18 – $58.81.
How volatile is FLY stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 99% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 74.2%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does FLY have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy FLY?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 65, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 48% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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