FN — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Sales engine. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Business quality.
Worth $12.6 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $126 B.
Sales +51% last quarter (year over year) and +36% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 12%, operating margin 10%, return on equity 21%.
Free cash flow −$247 M a year = -2.0% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 2.4× sales: 0.06 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 5% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.3%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 21 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year FN is down 21.7%. Over about two years: +35.8%.
- Today it sits 52.9% below its 52-week high ($746.47) and +20.0% above the low ($292.97).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 60.8%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +16.5%. Worst day: -19.4%.
- Annual volatility around 90%: in a normal year a ±90% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 46% | $351.81 +0.1% | $332.46 – $372.30 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 46% | $352.25 +0.2% | $319.35 – $388.52 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 45% | $352.68 +0.3% | $310.75 – $400.25 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 44% | $353.76 +0.6% | $295.79 – $423.09 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 43% | $356.14 +1.3% | $274.78 – $461.59 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 41% | $365.40 +3.9% | $233.18 – $572.62 |
Recent momentum: -8.7% over 20 days · -22.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for FN. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about FN
Could FN be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 65/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has FN fallen in the last year?
Fabrinet (FN) is down 21.7% over the last 12 months and trades at $351.60, 52.9% below its 52-week high ($746.47). 52-week range: $292.97 – $746.47.
How volatile is FN stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 90% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 60.8%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does FN have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy FN?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 55, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 43% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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