FRVO — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Balance sheet and Room to grow. Most lacking: Business quality and Price vs. growth.
⚠️ Worth billions with almost no sales yet: the price rests on the story, not the numbers.
Worth $2.4 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $23.7 B.
Not enough sales data.
Gross margin -146%, operating margin -25435%, return on equity —.
No free cash flow data.
Trades at 7595.8× sales with no growth to back it.
Net cash equal to 75% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 22.0%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 89 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the 113 sessions we have for FRVO it moved -78.0%.
- Today it sits 81.1% below its 52-week high ($42.50) and +0.0% above the low ($8.04).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 81.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 36% of days. Best day: +30.6%. Worst day: -19.1%.
- Annual volatility around 116%: in a normal year a ±116% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 38% | $8.02 -0.2% | $7.46 – $8.63 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 36% | $7.98 -0.7% | $7.04 – $9.06 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 35% | $7.94 -1.2% | $6.75 – $9.35 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 32% | $7.85 -2.4% | $6.23 – $9.89 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 29% | $7.65 -4.9% | $5.47 – $10.68 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 22% | $6.92 -13.9% | $3.88 – $12.35 |
Recent momentum: -47.0% over 20 days · -63.9% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for FRVO. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 30 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about FRVO
Could FRVO be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 43/100 (weak): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has FRVO fallen in the last year?
Fervo Energy (FRVO) is down 78.0% over the period with data and trades at $8.04, 81.1% below its 52-week high ($42.50). 52-week range: $8.04 – $42.50.
How volatile is FRVO stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 116% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 81.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does FRVO have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy FRVO?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 14 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 29% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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