FSLR — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Balance sheet and Business quality. Most lacking: Sales engine and Price vs. growth.
Worth $18.6 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $186 B.
Sales -23% last quarter (year over year) and +24% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 49%, operating margin 38%, return on equity 19%.
Free cash flow $688 M a year = 3.7% of its value.
Trades at 3.7× sales with no growth to back it.
Net cash equal to 7% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 5.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 44 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year FSLR is down 34.5%. Over about two years: -5.1%.
- Today it sits 45.6% below its 52-week high ($318.25) and +2.9% above the low ($168.15).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 47.2%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +10.9%. Worst day: -13.6%.
- Annual volatility around 48%: in a normal year a ±48% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 45% | $173.02 -0.0% | $167.84 – $178.36 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 44% | $172.98 -0.0% | $164.11 – $182.33 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 44% | $172.95 -0.1% | $161.58 – $185.11 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 42% | $172.86 -0.1% | $157.02 – $190.29 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 41% | $172.66 -0.2% | $150.21 – $198.46 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 38% | $171.91 -0.7% | $135.06 – $218.81 |
Recent momentum: -3.2% over 20 days · -22.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for FSLR. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about FSLR
Could FSLR be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 51/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has FSLR fallen in the last year?
First Solar (FSLR) is down 34.5% over the last 12 months and trades at $173.04, 45.6% below its 52-week high ($318.25). 52-week range: $168.15 – $318.25.
How volatile is FSLR stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 48% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 47.2%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does FSLR have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy FSLR?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 51, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 41% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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