GEVO — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $476 M. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $4.8 B.
Sales +94% last quarter (year over year) and +849% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 53%, operating margin -7%, return on equity -46%.
Free cash flow −$17 M a year = -3.6% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 2.2× sales: 0.02 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 22% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 4.5%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (44%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 22 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year GEVO is down 7.8%. Over about two years: +17.4%.
- Today it sits 30.7% below its 52-week high ($2.78) and +73.5% above the low ($1.11).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 60.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 44% of days. Best day: +30.9%. Worst day: -14.0%.
- Annual volatility around 80%: in a normal year a ±80% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 61% | $1.93 +0.0% | $1.83 – $2.03 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 61% | $1.93 +0.1% | $1.77 – $2.10 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 61% | $1.93 +0.2% | $1.72 – $2.16 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 61% | $1.93 +0.3% | $1.65 – $2.27 |
| 1 month | Strongly bullish | 59% | $1.94 +0.7% | $1.54 – $2.44 |
| 3 months | Strongly bullish | 57% | $1.97 +2.0% | $1.32 – $2.93 |
Recent momentum: +64.6% over 20 days · +25.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for GEVO. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about GEVO
Could GEVO be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 67/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has GEVO fallen in the last year?
Gevo (GEVO) is down 7.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $1.93, 30.7% below its 52-week high ($2.78). 52-week range: $1.11 – $2.78.
How volatile is GEVO stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 80% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 60.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does GEVO have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy GEVO?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 80 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 59% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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