GH — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Sales engine and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $21.0 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $210 B.
Sales +36% last quarter (year over year) and +33% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 65%, operating margin -39%, return on equity —.
Free cash flow −$61 M a year = -0.3% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 16.4× sales: 0.48 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 3% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 3.9%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (69%) · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 51 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year GH is up 58.6%. Over about two years: +421.3%.
- Today it sits 17.2% below its 52-week high ($187.22) and +97.2% above the low ($78.60).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 33.0%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 53% of days. Best day: +17.1%. Worst day: -9.8%.
- Annual volatility around 49%: in a normal year a ±49% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 44% | $155.36 +0.2% | $150.67 – $160.20 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 45% | $156.11 +0.7% | $148.03 – $164.62 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 47% | $156.85 +1.2% | $146.46 – $167.98 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 51% | $158.73 +2.4% | $144.06 – $174.89 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 56% | $162.94 +5.1% | $141.58 – $187.52 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 66% | $180.08 +16.2% | $141.18 – $229.70 |
Recent momentum: -6.6% over 20 days · -5.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for GH. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about GH
Could GH be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 58/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has GH gone up in the last year?
Guardant Health (GH) is up 58.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $155.00, 17.2% below its 52-week high ($187.22). 52-week range: $78.60 – $187.22.
How volatile is GH stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 49% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 33.0%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does GH have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy GH?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 40, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 56% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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