GVA — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year GVA is up 2.7%. Over about two years: +28.5%.
- Today it sits 33.6% below its 52-week high ($160.39) and +8.1% above the low ($98.50).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 33.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +11.8%. Worst day: -12.5%.
- Annual volatility around 40%: in a normal year a ±40% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 40% | $106.50 +0.1% | $103.86 – $109.22 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 40% | $106.61 +0.2% | $102.06 – $111.36 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 40% | $106.72 +0.3% | $100.87 – $112.90 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 40% | $106.99 +0.5% | $98.80 – $115.85 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 40% | $107.58 +1.1% | $95.85 – $120.74 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 41% | $109.87 +3.2% | $89.96 – $134.18 |
Recent momentum: -7.5% over 20 days · -7.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 GVA government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Inc., Watsonville, California, was awarded a $32,368,584 modification (P00015) to contract W91238-23-C-0014 for construction of a new northern abutment to the Sacramento Weir Widening project to address unforeseen geotechnical conditions and related engineering changes.
💡 Firm money at signing: $32 M. Stock since the announcement: -0.7%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 30 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about GVA
How much has GVA gone up in the last year?
Granite Construction (GVA) is up 2.7% over the last 12 months and trades at $106.45, 33.6% below its 52-week high ($160.39). 52-week range: $98.50 – $160.39.
How volatile is GVA stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 40% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 33.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does GVA have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: Army, $32 M, Oct 16, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy GVA?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 26 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 40% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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