HAWK — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $1.2 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $12.0 B.
Sales +87% last quarter (year over year) and — last fiscal year.
Gross margin 74%, operating margin -23%, return on equity —.
No free cash flow data.
Trades at 7.2× sales: 0.08 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 40% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 20.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 75 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the 117 sessions we have for HAWK it moved -63.9%.
- Today it sits 64.6% below its 52-week high ($34.66) and +5.2% above the low ($11.67).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 66.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 38% of days. Best day: +9.7%. Worst day: -11.8%.
- Annual volatility around 65%: in a normal year a ±65% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 38% | $12.25 -0.2% | $11.76 – $12.76 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 36% | $12.19 -0.7% | $11.36 – $13.09 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 35% | $12.13 -1.2% | $11.07 – $13.30 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 33% | $11.99 -2.4% | $10.53 – $13.65 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 29% | $11.68 -4.9% | $9.68 – $14.10 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 21% | $10.57 -13.9% | $7.63 – $14.64 |
Recent momentum: -23.7% over 20 days · -40.5% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for HAWK. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 30 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about HAWK
Could HAWK be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 85/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has HAWK fallen in the last year?
HawkEye 360 (HAWK) is down 63.9% over the period with data and trades at $12.28, 64.6% below its 52-week high ($34.66). 52-week range: $11.67 – $34.66.
How volatile is HAWK stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 65% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 66.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does HAWK have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy HAWK?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 26 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 29% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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