Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $290.76 +0.0% | $283.29 – $298.43 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $290.82 +0.0% | $277.99 – $304.24 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 38% | $290.88 +0.1% | $274.42 – $308.32 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 37% | $291.03 +0.1% | $268.02 – $316.01 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 37% | $291.36 +0.2% | $258.58 – $328.29 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 36% | $292.62 +0.6% | $237.97 – $359.81 |
Recent momentum: -9.1% over 20 days · -1.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Part of the Virginia-class submarine program (co-builder).
💡 HII is the other major U.S. submarine yard; it rides the same naval supercycle.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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