HIMS — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Cash it generates and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Balance sheet and Faro seal.
Worth $6.5 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $64.7 B.
Sales +38% last quarter (year over year) and +59% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 70%, operating margin -13%, return on equity -32%.
Free cash flow $849 M a year = 13.1% of its value.
Trades at 2.5× sales: 0.05 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 11% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 4.9%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (38%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 53 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year HIMS is down 41.6%. Over about two years: +28.8%.
- Today it sits 43.2% below its 52-week high ($48.78) and +90.8% above the low ($14.52).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 70.2%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 44% of days. Best day: +40.8%. Worst day: -16.0%.
- Annual volatility around 80%: in a normal year a ±80% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 46% | $27.72 +0.1% | $26.37 – $29.15 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 45% | $27.75 +0.2% | $25.44 – $30.27 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 46% | $27.78 +0.3% | $24.83 – $31.08 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 47% | $27.85 +0.5% | $23.76 – $32.64 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 47% | $28.01 +1.1% | $22.25 – $35.25 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 48% | $28.61 +3.2% | $19.21 – $42.60 |
Recent momentum: -5.8% over 20 days · +2.5% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for HIMS. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 30 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about HIMS
Could HIMS be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 80/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has HIMS fallen in the last year?
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is down 41.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $27.71, 43.2% below its 52-week high ($48.78). 52-week range: $14.52 – $48.78.
How volatile is HIMS stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 80% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 70.2%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does HIMS have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy HIMS?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: neutral technical bias, RSI 43, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 47% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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