Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 52% | $232.14 -0.0% | $223.67 – $240.93 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 52% | $232.14 -0.0% | $217.66 – $247.57 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 52% | $232.13 -0.0% | $213.62 – $252.25 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 51% | $232.13 -0.0% | $206.38 – $261.08 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 49% | $232.11 -0.0% | $195.75 – $275.22 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 46% | $232.05 -0.0% | $172.75 – $311.69 |
Recent momentum: +1.1% over 20 days · +12.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
E-gov travel service, next generation (etsnext) travel and expense (t&e) technology managed service. mod p00020 base period year 3 transaction minimums, add pcrs 005, 006 007 008, and 010
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $34 M. Stock since the announcement: -4.6%.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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