IONQ — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Sales engine and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Business quality and Cash it generates.
Worth $14.4 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $144 B.
Sales +336% last quarter (year over year) and +202% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 25%, operating margin -306%, return on equity 7%.
Free cash flow −$121 M a year = -0.8% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 37.8× sales: 0.25 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 6% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.6%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 38 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year IONQ is down 43.1%. Over about two years: +34.6%.
- Today it sits 57.0% below its 52-week high ($72.07) and +17.2% above the low ($26.43).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 63.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 43% of days. Best day: +23.4%. Worst day: -14.4%.
- Annual volatility around 87%: in a normal year a ±87% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 44% | $31.00 +0.1% | $29.35 – $32.74 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 44% | $31.04 +0.2% | $28.23 – $34.12 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 43% | $31.07 +0.3% | $27.50 – $35.11 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 42% | $31.16 +0.6% | $26.21 – $37.05 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 41% | $31.37 +1.3% | $24.41 – $40.30 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 40% | $32.16 +3.8% | $20.83 – $49.64 |
Recent momentum: -9.8% over 20 days · -28.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for IONQ. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about IONQ
Could IONQ be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 63/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has IONQ fallen in the last year?
IonQ (IONQ) is down 43.1% over the last 12 months and trades at $30.98, 57.0% below its 52-week high ($72.07). 52-week range: $26.43 – $72.07.
How volatile is IONQ stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 87% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 63.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does IONQ have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy IONQ?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 49, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 41% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
🔦 Keep analyzing
Other stocks Faro watches