IREN — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Business quality. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Balance sheet.
Worth $8.1 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $80.7 B.
Sales -5% last quarter (year over year) and +39% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 73%, operating margin -73%, return on equity -34%.
Free cash flow −$8.8 B a year = -108.8% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 11.6× sales: 0.69 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 83% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 6.2%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 70 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year IREN is down 66.9%. Over about two years: +53.3%.
- Today it sits 72.0% below its 52-week high ($67.84) and +5.5% above the low ($18.03).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 73.4%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 44% of days. Best day: +30.5%. Worst day: -17.4%.
- Annual volatility around 112%: in a normal year a ±112% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 40% | $19.03 +0.1% | $17.73 – $20.42 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $19.06 +0.3% | $16.87 – $21.54 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 39% | $19.10 +0.4% | $16.31 – $22.36 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $19.18 +0.9% | $15.34 – $23.97 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 37% | $19.36 +1.8% | $14.01 – $26.75 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 37% | $20.07 +5.5% | $11.46 – $35.14 |
Recent momentum: -37.4% over 20 days · -55.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for IREN. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about IREN
Could IREN be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 48/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has IREN fallen in the last year?
IREN (IREN) is down 66.9% over the last 12 months and trades at $19.02, 72.0% below its 52-week high ($67.84). 52-week range: $18.03 – $67.84.
How volatile is IREN stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 112% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 73.4%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does IREN have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy IREN?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 40, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 37% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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