Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 50% | $124.54 -0.1% | $121.56 – $127.60 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 50% | $124.39 -0.2% | $119.27 – $129.73 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 49% | $124.24 -0.3% | $117.67 – $131.16 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 47% | $123.85 -0.6% | $114.70 – $133.73 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 44% | $123.01 -1.3% | $110.06 – $137.48 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 39% | $119.86 -3.8% | $98.86 – $145.32 |
Recent momentum: -2.8% over 20 days · +11.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Leidos Inc., Reston, Virginia, was awarded a $317,986,855 firm-fixed-price contract to provide essential system reintegration, software licensing, and hosting services for the electronic health record system known as MHS GENESIS.
💡 Worth 2.03% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: +4.3%.
Nci operational task order, fy26-fy27
💡 Worth 2.18% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $342 M. Stock since the announcement: +2.5%.
Functional precision medicine and response assays
💡 Worth 0.46% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $72 M. Stock since the announcement: +1.4%.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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