LIDR — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Balance sheet and Room to grow. Most lacking: Business quality and Cash it generates.
Worth $37 M. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $366 M.
Sales +912% last quarter (year over year) and -84% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin -65%, operating margin -4358%, return on equity -53%.
Free cash flow −$19 M a year = -51.6% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 40.4× sales with no growth to back it.
Net cash equal to 170% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 2.5%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 80 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year LIDR is down 68.4%. Over about two years: -35.4%.
- Today it sits 71.3% below its 52-week high ($2.72) and +0.0% above the low ($0.78).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 71.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 42% of days. Best day: +38.5%. Worst day: -14.4%.
- Annual volatility around 78%: in a normal year a ±78% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 38% | $0.78 -0.1% | $0.74 – $0.82 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $0.78 -0.3% | $0.72 – $0.85 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 36% | $0.78 -0.4% | $0.70 – $0.87 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 35% | $0.77 -0.9% | $0.66 – $0.90 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 33% | $0.77 -1.8% | $0.61 – $0.96 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 28% | $0.74 -5.3% | $0.50 – $1.09 |
Recent momentum: -10.6% over 20 days · -38.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for LIDR. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about LIDR
Could LIDR be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 32/100 (weak): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has LIDR fallen in the last year?
AEye (LIDR) is down 68.4% over the last 12 months and trades at $0.78, 71.3% below its 52-week high ($2.72). 52-week range: $0.78 – $2.72.
How volatile is LIDR stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 78% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 71.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does LIDR have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy LIDR?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 29 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 33% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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