LMND — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Sales engine and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Faro seal and Business quality.
Worth $3.5 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $34.8 B.
Sales +79% last quarter (year over year) and +40% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 52%, operating margin -12%, return on equity -27%.
Free cash flow $94 M a year = 2.7% of its value.
Trades at 3.6× sales: 0.06 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 4% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 8.6%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 34 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year LMND is down 8.8%. Over about two years: +137.0%.
- Today it sits 53.5% below its 52-week high ($96.57) and +4.1% above the low ($43.15).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 55.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +34.2%. Worst day: -23.7%.
- Annual volatility around 69%: in a normal year a ±69% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 46% | $45.00 +0.2% | $43.09 – $46.99 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 47% | $45.15 +0.5% | $41.90 – $48.66 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 47% | $45.31 +0.9% | $41.13 – $49.91 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 46% | $45.70 +1.7% | $39.86 – $52.40 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 47% | $46.58 +3.7% | $38.21 – $56.78 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 49% | $50.08 +11.5% | $35.53 – $70.58 |
Recent momentum: -0.0% over 20 days · -7.5% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for LMND. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 30 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about LMND
Could LMND be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 79/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has LMND fallen in the last year?
Lemonade (LMND) is down 8.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $44.92, 53.5% below its 52-week high ($96.57). 52-week range: $43.15 – $96.57.
How volatile is LMND stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 69% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 55.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does LMND have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy LMND?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 43, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 47% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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