MCK — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Cash it generates. Most lacking: Business quality and Faro seal.
Worth $116 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $1.16 T.
Sales +8% last quarter (year over year) and +12% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 4%, operating margin 1%, return on equity —.
Free cash flow $6.8 B a year = 5.8% of its value.
Trades at 0.3× sales: 0.03 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 6% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 0.1%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month high · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 11 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year MCK is up 20.9%. Over about two years: +89.8%.
- Today it sits 3.1% below its 52-week high ($1,030.12) and +37.7% above the low ($725.17).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 27.2%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 52% of days. Best day: +16.5%. Worst day: -7.2%.
- Annual volatility around 30%: in a normal year a ±30% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 59% | $999.66 +0.1% | $981.24 – $1,018.43 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 60% | $1,002.23 +0.4% | $970.47 – $1,035.04 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 61% | $1,004.81 +0.6% | $963.89 – $1,047.48 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 63% | $1,011.29 +1.3% | $953.53 – $1,072.54 |
| 1 month | Strongly bullish | 66% | $1,025.68 +2.7% | $941.89 – $1,116.92 |
| 3 months | Strongly bullish | 72% | $1,082.53 +8.4% | $933.97 – $1,254.71 |
Recent momentum: +9.1% over 20 days · +14.8% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 MCK government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Express report: pharmaceutical prime vendor (ppv)fy2026 september
💡 Firm money at signing: $1.47 B. Stock since the announcement: +10.1%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Could MCK be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 47/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has MCK gone up in the last year?
McKesson (MCK) is up 20.9% over the last 12 months and trades at $998.38, 3.1% below its 52-week high ($1,030.12). 52-week range: $725.17 – $1,030.12.
How volatile is MCK stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 30% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 27.2%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does MCK have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: Veterans Affairs, $1.47 B, Sep 1, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy MCK?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 60, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 66% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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