MDGL — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Sales engine. Most lacking: Cash it generates and Faro seal.
Worth $9.9 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $99.4 B.
Sales +50% last quarter (year over year) and +432% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 91%, operating margin -11%, return on equity -25%.
Free cash flow −$112 M a year = -1.1% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 7.0× sales: 0.07 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 6% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 5.8%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (28%) · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 29 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year MDGL is down 21.0%. Over about two years: +26.2%.
- Today it sits 29.0% below its 52-week high ($602.83) and +7.9% above the low ($396.32).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 34.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +12.3%. Worst day: -11.1%.
- Annual volatility around 41%: in a normal year a ±41% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 44% | $427.94 +0.0% | $417.08 – $439.09 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 44% | $428.34 +0.1% | $409.68 – $447.85 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 44% | $428.74 +0.2% | $404.78 – $454.12 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 43% | $429.73 +0.5% | $396.17 – $466.15 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 43% | $431.93 +1.0% | $383.91 – $485.96 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 44% | $440.43 +3.0% | $359.10 – $540.18 |
Recent momentum: -7.0% over 20 days · -20.8% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for MDGL. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 34 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Could MDGL be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 75/100 (strong multibagger dna): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has MDGL fallen in the last year?
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) is down 21.0% over the last 12 months and trades at $427.75, 29.0% below its 52-week high ($602.83). 52-week range: $396.32 – $602.83.
How volatile is MDGL stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 41% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 34.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does MDGL have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy MDGL?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 47, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 43% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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