Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 55% | $58.82 -0.1% | $57.49 – $60.18 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 54% | $58.72 -0.3% | $56.43 – $61.09 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 52% | $58.61 -0.4% | $55.69 – $61.69 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 50% | $58.36 -0.9% | $54.28 – $62.74 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 46% | $57.80 -1.8% | $52.05 – $64.20 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 38% | $55.73 -5.3% | $46.47 – $66.84 |
Recent momentum: -0.8% over 20 days · +1.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Contact center operations
💡 Worth 13.05% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $402 M. Stock since the announcement: +10.5%.
Contact center operations
💡 Worth 4.34% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $134 M. Stock since the announcement: +4%.
Option year 2 exercise and funding realignment
💡 Worth 0.94% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $29 M. Stock since the announcement: +1.9%.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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